Bitcoin (BTC) may have more to lose if one BTC price chart pattern plays out as usual, warns veteran analyst Filbfilb.

In his latest update on X (formerly Twitter) on Jan. 19, the founder of trading suite Decentrader sounded the alarm over Bitcoin’s descent to monthly lows.

Bitcoin’s 3-day chart suggests start of downside

BTC price action fell to $40,600 overnight, marking almost a 20% retreat from last week’s local highs, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

While subsequently rebounding above $41,000, market strength is convincing few traders and analysts in the short term.

Filbfilb is among them, with 3-day timeframes of particular concern.

Uploading a comparative chart, he showed that when the 3-day chart crosses below the daily 50-period simple moving average (DMA), further downside tends to result. The chart extended to Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $69,000 seen in November 2021.

“3 Day red with a break below 50 DMA. There are a few examples of this happening in the past,” he commented.

BTC/USD 3-day chart with 50-day SMA. Source: Filbfilb/TradingView

Previously, Filbfilb successfully estimated Bitcoin topping out at $48,000 around the announcement of the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). A similar BTC price target is in place for April’s block subsidy halving.

Bitcoin traders stay cautious

The overnight dip meanwhile sent BTC/USD below its 2024 opening price.

Related: Did a $5B Bitcoin whale sale spark the post-ETF BTC price crash?

Analyzing liquidity conditions, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro flagged $40,000 as the next crucial level to hold.

As Cointelegraph reported, various market participants view the mid-$30,000 range as a potential bounce zone to come.

“I think we need 1 more (smaller) leg down before we can bounce. Last nights bounce not convincing me…,” popular trader Crypto Ed, creator of trading group CryptoTA, wrote on the day, preceding in-depth analysis.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.