Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), started the week on a depressive note as investors braced themselves for a flurry of rate hike decisions from central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
Bitcoin price fails to hold $20,000
On Sep. 19, BTC’s price has failed to regain the $20,000 psychological support zone. The BTC/USD pair slipped by 6.5% to around $18,250, while ETH dropped 4% to approximately $1,280.
Their gloomy performance came as a part of a broader decline that started in mid-August, wherein BTC and ETH wiped a total of 28% and 37% off their market valuation, respectively.
BTC/USD and ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
A 500 bps global rate hike ahead?
This week, the Fed and a number of its global peers will potentially attack rising inflation by further raising interest rates.
Data compiled by Bloomberg suggests that the U.S. central bank, alongside Sweden’s Riksbank, the Swiss National Bank, Norway’s Norges Bank, the Bank of England, and others, will raise lending rates by a combined 500 basis points, or 5%.
Central banks’ rate decisions in the week ending Sep. 24. Source: Bloomberg
The market’s riskier assets have reacted negatively to these upcoming policy meetings.
Last week, MSCI’s flagship global equity index, ACWI, which combines developed and emerging market stocks, fell 4.25% to nearly $84. At its peak, the index was trading for $107.39 in November 2021. Interestingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum peaked in the same month at $69,000 and $4,950, respectively.
ACWI weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Therefore, this growing correlation against the prospect of global rate hikes could continue to pressure BTC and ETH lower despite their growth-oriented narratives.
#Ethereum Merge resulting in downside teaches us a valuable lesson.
The global macro environment supersedes everything.
If the global markets were generally bullish, then the Merge would have resulted in a pump. But it didn’t.
This goes for #Bitcoin as well.
– Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) September 18, 2022
Instead, investors may seek safety in low-volatile assets, including the U.S. dollar and government bonds.
For instance, the U.S. dollar index, a barometer to measure the greenback’s strength, rose by 0.5% to 110 on Sep. 19 after its highest weekly close since 2002.
Similarly, six-month U.S. Treasury notes yield 3.79% if held until maturity, thus offering investors a safer investment alternative with guaranteed returns in the short term. Similarly, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed its June high when Bitcoin dropped to yearly lows.
U.S. Treasury Yields as of Sep. 19. Source: Bloomberg
Other shorter-dated and longer-dated T-bills yield similar returns.
Bitcoin to $14K-$15K, Ethereum to $750 next?
A mix of on-chain and technical indicators further hints at an imminent price crash in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.
First, the Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands (7-10 years), which tracks spent BTC and bundles them into categories depending on their age, showed the movement of more than 5,000 BTC on Sep. 4. MACD_D, a user at the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, argues that this is typically bad news for the price of Bitcoin.
“If the holder, which held BTC in its seventh year, moves more than 5,000BTC, there could be a strong downward trend in the future,” the verified user wrote, stressing:
“This indicator showed signal 7 in the past and fell 6 times except for 1 (07 Feb ’21) The fact that the long-term holder moved the BTC means that there will be an unusual price movement in the future.”
Bitcoin spent output age bands (7-10 years). Source: CryptoQuant
The user also highlighted a recent rise in Ether dominance to over 20%, noting that it typically hints at a bubble that’s about to pop. Excerpts:
“When #BTC is simply transverse, the excessive rise of Ethereum creates a bubble. In particular, if the ETH dominance rises by more than 20%, it provides a good timing to enter the short position.”
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing “bear flag” pattern, now eyeing an extended decline toward the flag’s profit target at around $14,500 in 2022.
BTC/USD daily price chart featuring bear flag breakdown setup. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, Ether has also been breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. As a result, ETH price could drop toward $750 if the bearish continuation pattern plays out, along with weakening technicals for the ETH/BTC pair as well.
ETH/USD daily price chart featuring symmetrical triangle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView
In other words, a 40% ETH price crash is on the table before the end of the year.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.