Bitcoin (BTC) is in line for a relief bounce but still risks dropping all the way to $30,000 before May, new analysis warned on April 18.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
$30,000 dive is April “risk”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $39,000 on Monday as bearish prognoses for the pair mounted.
After losing $40,000 support overnight into Monday, Bitcoin faced thin liquidity in the absence of United States and European equities trading thanks to the Easter weekend.
For popular trader Crypto Ed, a near-term retreat should bottom out at $37,500 before a rebound kicks in.
“First need to reclaim $40,000; if we manage that, it’ll certainly give a bullish impulse to the market,” he said in his latest YouTube update.
Should that happen, $43,000 could figure as the local high, but going forward, the picture looks bleak. Using Elliott Wave analysis, Crypto Ed predicted a repeat of recent downside moves interspersed with a brief relief bounce. The target, he concluded, was $30,000.
“That’s the risk for the coming, let’s say, two weeks,” he added.
Popular Twitter account Bitcoin Jack likewise called for the coming weeks to act as a moment of reckoning for longer-term price action.
Room for a squeeze up but then heading to the monthly level below in due time is where my thinking is at
Guessing early May to decide major trend in to summer time pic.twitter.com/Zo8hARsyo8
– //Bitcoin ack (@BTC_JackSparrow) April 18, 2022
$30,000 as a target for May or June is nothing new, as Cointelegraph previously reported.
Gold strikes out as crypto correlation wanes
Despite Bitcoin coming under pressure, there was no sense of pain for safe haven gold on Monday.
Related: US dollar strength mimics 2020 Coronavirus crash – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
After climbing throughout the past week, XAU/USD crept up on the $2,000 mark again, coming within $2 of the resistance level before retreating to around $1,990.
Nonetheless, the pair traded at its highest since March 11, giving the U.S. dollar’s own strength a run for its money.
“A 50-day correlation coefficient for Bitcoin and gold is around minus 0.4, the lowest since 2018,” journalist Colin Wu noted about the implications of gold and Bitcoin’s diverging price performance.
“For now, Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 15% this year, while bitcoin has shed some 16%.”
XAU/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
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