Price analysis 11/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, SOL, XRP, DOT, SHIB, DOGE, LUNA
Bitcoin and Ether closed October on a strong note, increasing the possibility that the rally will pick up pace in November.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) had their highest monthly close ever in October, indicating strong momentum that favors buyers. The focus now shifts to November, which has been largely bullish for Bitcoin.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed November in the red on only two occasions, in 2018 and 2019. Another positive impetus for Bitcoin could be the tailwinds from the United States stock markets, which also have an enviable record in November.
The S&P 500 has recorded a median rise of 2% in November, the only month of the year to achieve such impressive median returns.
Data from Glassnode also shows that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at their lowest level in three years. The amount of Bitcoin held on the books of exchanges has dropped from 3.1 million Bitcoin in April 2020 to 2.47 million BTC. According to analysts, this could be bullish for Bitcoin if the demand shoots up because that could create a supply shock.
Could Ether lead the altcoins higher or will Bitcoin remain in the driver’s seat? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin turned down from the resistance line of the flag pattern on Oct. 31 but the bulls did not allow the price to sustain below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($59,876). This is a positive sign as it shows that traders are buying on dips.
A break and close above the resistance line will complete the bullish flag setup. The BTC/USDT pair could then rally to the all-time high at $67,000. This level is likely to act as a major roadblock but if bulls can overcome it, the pair could start its journey toward the target objective at $89,476.12.
The rising moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive zone indicate that bulls have the upper hand. The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could result in a decline to the support line of the pattern.
The selling could accelerate if bears sustain the price below the flag. The pair could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($53,115).
The long tail on Ether’s candlestick on Nov. 1 shows that bulls are buying on dips with vigor. The bulls have not allowed the price to dip and sustain below the 20-day EMA ($4,042) since Oct. 1, which suggests that sentiment remains positive.
If bulls thrust the price above the overhead resistance at $4,460.47, the ETH/USDT pair could resume the uptrend. The pair could then rally to the psychologically important level at $5,000 where the bears are likely to pose a stiff challenge.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will try to pull the pair to the 20-day EMA. This is an important support to watch out for because a break below it could prompt short-term traders to book profits.
The bears attempted to pull Binance Coin (BNB) back below $518.90 for the past two days but the long tail on the candlestick shows bulls had other plans. Lower levels are attracting strong buying and the bulls will now try to resume the uptrend.
The rising 20-day EMA (486) and the RSI just below the overbought zone suggest that bulls are in command. If bulls sustain the price above $540.50, the BNB/USDT pair could move towards the pattern target at $554 and later to the psychological resistance at $600.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest aggressive selling at higher levels. That may trap several aggressive bulls, pulling the pair to the critical support at $392.20.
The bulls have successfully defended the strong support at $1.87 for the past few days but they are struggling to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($2.07). This indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears will now try to sink the price below the support zone at $1.87 to $1.80. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $1.58. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears are in control.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the moving averages, it will indicate strong accumulation at $1.87. The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $2.47.
Solana (SOL) rebounded off the 20-day EMA on Oct. 31, signaling strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will now try to push the price above the overhead resistance zone at $216 to $218.93.
If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could resume its uptrend and rally to the pattern target at $239.83. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $265.80.
The rising 20-day EMA ($185) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that bulls have the upper hand. This positive view will be negated if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the price down to the trendline.
Ripple (XRP) is stuck between the downtrend line and the $1 support as the bears are selling on rallies and bulls are buying on dips. The bulls tried to push the price above the downtrend line on Oct. 31 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The bears are attempting to sink the price below the moving averages as of Nov. 1. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could again drop to the strong support at $1. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it may pull the price to $0.85.
If bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $1.24. The flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
Polkadot (DOT) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($41.93) on Oct. 31 as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. This is a positive sign as it shows that traders are accumulating on dips.
Sustained buying on Nov. 1 has pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $46.39. The bulls tried to clear the next overhead hurdle at the all-time high at $49.78 but the bears are not willing to relent.
If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and finds support at $46.30, it will improve the prospects of the resumption of the up-move toward the pattern target at $53.90.
The first sign of weakness will be a close below $46.39. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA.
SHIBA INU’s (SHIB) long tail on the Oct. 31 candlestick suggests that bulls aggressively bought the dip to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.00005778.
The buyers will now try to push the price toward the all-time high at $0.00008854. This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the SHIB/USDT pair could trade between $0.00008854 and $0.00005778 for a few days.
A break and close above $0.00008854 could indicate the resumption of the uptrend that may reach the 300% Fibonacci extension level at $0.00010349. Conversely, a break and close below $0.00005778 may pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($0.000048).
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.25) on Oct. 31 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the price above $0.27. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies.
The 20-day EMA ($0.25) is sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to buyers. If the price sustains above $0.27, the DOGE/USDT pair may rally to $0.30 and later to $0.35.
This positive view will invalidate in the short term if bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then decline to the 50-day SMA ($0.23). If this support is breached, the down move could extend to $0.19.
Terra protocol’s LUNA token has been trading between the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle and the 20-day EMA ($41.65), which is a positive sign. This suggests that traders are buying on dips to the 20-day EMA.
The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the triangle to indicate the possible resumption of the uptrend. The LUNA/USDT pair could first rise to $49.54 and if this obstacle is crossed, the uptrend may extend to the pattern target at $62.59.
If bears pull the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($38.89) and later to the support line of the triangle. A break and close below this support will indicate that bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair may then drop to $33 and next to $22.40.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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