Bitcoin erases BTC price dip but $48.2K is now key to avoid bull trap
The bounce back above $48,000 is not a definitive sign that a correction is over, analysts warn.
Bitcoin (BTC) quickly regained lost ground on Aug. 25 after a brief dip towards $47,000 failed to keep bulls down.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Rebound or bull trap?
At the time of writing, the pair traded at near $48,700, having gained $1,500 in a matter of hours.
Analysis had hinted at a rebound even as lower lows continued to come on the hourly chart, these coming true as volume and relative strength index (RSI) performance improved.
For trader and analyst Rekt Capital, however, there was no need to celebrate too soon. Bitcoin, he warned, needed to definitively reclaim levels above $48,000.
“BTC is showing some small signs of recovery,” he told Twitter followers in comments on an accompanying chart.
“But if $BTC can’t reclaim the red area/blue level soon then this recovery will have merely been a relief rally to turn previous support into new resistance.”BTC/USD 1-day annotated candle chart (Coinbase). Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
Zooming out removes all doubt
Elsewhere, bullish sentiment remained firmly in place.
PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow family of Bitocin price models, reiterated that both the BTC/USD 200-week moving average and Bitcoin’s realized cap were at all-time highs.
“Nobody who bought bitcoin and hodled 4+ years (200 weeks) lost money, EVER!” he tweeted in an optimistic take alongside a chart showing the metrics.
BTC/USD chart with 200-week moving average and realized cap. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
Bitcoin had never fallen below the 200-week moving average. Its delta price, which fellow analyst William Clemente explained is the difference between average cap and realized cap, has also never been violated and currently stands at $15,200.
Delta tends to act as definitive support, and is tested only during the pit of bear markets.