Pro on crypto winter: Bitcoin bottom will occur in Q4

  • Bitcoin price is around $18,650 after falling to lows of $18,255 on Monday following another sell-off bout amid a prolonged crypto winter.
  • Analyst Rekt Capital says ’typical market bottoms’ are often months in the making.
  • He expects BTC price bottom in Q4 this year.

Bitcoin has slumped below the $20,000 and seen a more than 7% dump take prices to lows around $18,255 early Monday.

The decline follows a broader weakness across risk-on assets as the broader market anticipates a massive interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve and equally higher raise from the Bank of England later this week.

If stocks fall further, Bitcoin (which has shown high correlation to movements in equities) will also likely trade lower.

Analyst on Bitcoin price outlook

According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, it’s likely Bitcoin will continue to struggle with bearish pressure over coming weeks. He tweeted

Typical BTC Bear Market bottoms tend to take months to develop before a new macro uptrend begins. BTC has been meandering at current prices for only a few weeks – history suggests it is too premature to expect a full-blown macro trend reversal so soon.”

On when he expects a Bitcoin bottom, Rekt says it’s likely later in Q4 this year. The analyst bases his perspective on the historical price movement in relation to Bitcoin halving – a four year cycle event that sees new BTC creation (or mining rewards per block) cut in half as the total number of mineable BTC shrinks.

The last halving in 2020 saw miner rewards reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, and this will further fall to 3.125 at the next halving set for 2024.

 “In 2015, BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving. In 2018, BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash). If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year,” Rekt wrote.

 

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