The range-bound action in Bitcoin has kept the analysts guessing and a few expect the consolidation to continue for some more time, while others anticipate another leg lower.
A June 6 Glassnode report said that the aggregated realized losses from long-term holders reflected more than 0.006% of the market capitalization on May 29. This is in comparison to the peak of 0.015% of the market capitalization reached during the 2018 to 2019 bear market.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Along with the quantum of losses, investors may also have to be prepared for a longer duration of subdued prices. The duration of the current loss for long-term investors is only one month old, while the previous losses remained roughly for a year.
Could the lackluster trading action in Bitcoin and other major altcoins continue? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin plunged below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($30,565) on June 7 but a positive sign is that the bulls aggressively purchased the dip to the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. This resulted in a strong recovery as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. The ascending triangle pattern remains intact favoring the buyers.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, a minor negative is that the bulls could not build upon the momentum on June 8. This gave an opportunity to the bears who have again pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that bears continue to sell in the zone between the 20-day EMA and $32,659.
If bears sink the price below the trendline, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $28,630 where buying may emerge. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $32,659 and $28,630 for a few more days.
The next directional move is likely to begin on a break above $32,659 or below $28,630. Until then, volatile range-bound action is likely to continue.
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,908) on June 6, indicating that bears are not willing to cede ground to the bulls. The sellers then tried to sink the price below the critical support of $1,700 on June 7 but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls near the support.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price is currently coiling between the downsloping 20-day EMA and $1,700. This is likely to result in a range expansion that could set the stage for the next directional move.
If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,159. The bears may again mount a strong defense at this level. If the price turns down from it, the pair may spend some time inside the $2,159 to $1,700 range.
A break above $2,159 will be the first sign that the pair may have bottomed out while a break below $1,700 could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
BNB turned down from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on June 6 and plunged below the support line. This suggests that the bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $286 on June 7 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the support line on June 8.
If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could try to rise above the resistance line and trap the aggressive bears. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the support line into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $265.
The long wick on Cardano’s (ADA) June 6 and 7 candlestick shows that bears are selling the rallies to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.65). Although bears tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on June 7, the bulls held their ground.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers are again attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.74. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could suggest a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally toward the psychological level of $1.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA or $0.74, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA and gain the upper hand.
Ripple (XRP) formed an outside-day candlestick pattern on June 7, with the price rebounding off the strong support at $0.38 and closing near the overhead resistance at the downtrend line.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, buyers could not build upon this move and push the price above the downtrend line on June 8. This suggests that bears continue to sell near resistance levels. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below $0.38.
If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. That could result in a decline to the May 12 intraday low of $0.33. If this support cracks, the next stop could be the pattern target of $0.30.
This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.46.
Solana’s (SOL) attempt to start a recovery met with stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($45), which suggests that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price below the crucial support zone between $37 and $35. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The pair could then decline to $30.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating at lower levels. A break above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the selling pressure may be reducing. The pair could then rise to $50 and later to $60.
Dogecoin (DOGE) once again turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on June 6, indicating that bears are selling on rallies. A minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip on June 7, indicating buying at lower levels.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The DOGE/USDT pair has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $0.07, indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges resolve with an expansion but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.
If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, buyers who may be waiting on the sidelines could enter and push the pair toward the psychological level of $0.10. On the contrary, if the price slips below $0.07, the pair may resume the downtrend.
Polkadot (DOT) attempted to rise above the 20-day EMA ($10) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong selling by the bears.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The DOT/USDT pair dipped below the support line on June 7, indicating that the symmetrical triangle resolved in favor of the sellers. The pair could next drop to the strong support at $8.50 where the buyers will try to stall the decline.
This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that the break below the support line may have been a bear trap. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($12.35).
The buyers tried to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($28) on June 6 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are defending the level aggressively.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the strong support at $21 but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If bulls drive the AVAX/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the start of a recovery that may reach $37. The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) also supports a relief rally in the near term.
Alternatively, if the range expands to the downside and the price plummets below $21, the pair could resume its downtrend and drop to $18.
The bears tried to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below the strong support of $0.000010 on June 7 but the bulls successfully defended the level as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The longer the price trades below the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), the greater the possibility of a break below $0.000010. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000009 where the bulls may attempt to stall the decline.
To invalidate the bearish view, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.000014 where the bears are likely to mount a strong defense.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.