On May 17, United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the Wall Street Journal that the 50-basis-point rate hikes would continue until inflation is under control. Powell’s emphasis on a hawkish policy suggests that monetary conditions are likely to remain tight in 2022, which could limit the upside in risky assets.
On-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode said that historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has bottomed out when the price breaks below the realized price. However, barring the 2019 to 2020 bear market, during previous bear cycles, Bitcoin’s price stayed below the realized price for anywhere between 114 to 299 days. This suggests that if macro situations are not favorable, a quick recovery is unlikely.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
While the current decline in U.S. equity markets and Bitcoin has similarities with the crash in March 2020, the recovery may not follow the same trajectory because market conditions are different. In 2020, the Fed supported the markets with unprecedented stimulus but in 2022, the focus will remain on reducing inflation and monetary tightening.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins resume their downtrend or will lower levels attract buying? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin’s recovery failed to rise above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $31,721 suggesting that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The BTC/USDT pair could drop to the immediate support at $28,630. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair could consolidate between $28,630 and $31,721 for some time.
A break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($32,979) will be the first sign of a potential change in trend. The pair could then rally to the 61.8% retracement level at $34,823.
On the other hand, if the price slips below $28,630, the bears will try to cement their position by pulling the pair below $26,700. If that happens, the negative momentum could pick up and the pair may slide to $25,000 and thereafter to $21,800.
Ether’s (ETH) failure to rise above the overhead resistance at $2,159 may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That pulled the price below $1,940 but the bulls are attempting to defend the level.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rebounds off $1,940 with strength, the ETH/USDT pair could again rise to $2,159. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $2,159 to clear the path for a rally to the 20-day EMA ($2,353). A break and close above this resistance will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels.
Conversely, if bears sustain the price below $1,940, the pair could decline to the crucial support at $1,700. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could result in panic selling. The pair could then slump to $1,500 and later to $1,300.
The bulls have not been able to push BNB above the overhead resistance at $320. This suggests that bears have not given up and they continue to sell at higher levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price slips below $290, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $265. This level is likely to act as a strong support but if bears pull the price below it, the next stop could be the critical level at $211. The bears will have to break this level to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $265, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a bottom. That could keep the pair stuck between $320 and $265 for a few days. A break and close above $320 could suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.
Ripple’s (XRP) recovery failed to sustain above $0.45 indicating a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears will now attempt to pull the price below the immediate support zone at $0.40 to $0.38.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they do that the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.33. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The XRP/UDST pair could then plunge to the next support at $0.24.
On the other hand, if the price rises from $0.38 or $0.33, the bulls will again try to push the pair above $0.45. If they succeed, the pair could rise to the stiff overhead resistance zone at $0.50 to $0.55. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that the downtrend may be over.
Cardano (ADA) has been stuck in a tight range between $0.61 and $0.51 for the past few days. This suggests a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price slips below $0.51, the ADA/USDT pair could slide to the support zone between $0.46 and $0.40. The bulls may mount a strong defense in this zone. If the price rebounds off this zone, the buyers will again try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $0.74.
Conversely, if the price breaks below $0.40, the selling could pick up momentum and the pair may extend its decline to $0.33 and then to $0.28.
Solana (SOL) is facing strong resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $59, suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on minor rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price breaks below the psychological level at $50, the pair could slip to $43 and thereafter to $37. The bulls are likely to defend this level with all their might because if the support gives way, the downtrend could resume. The next stop on the downside may be $32.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above $59, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone between the 20-day EMA ($67) and $75. A break and close above this zone could suggest that the downtrend may be over.
Dogecoin (DOGE) continues to trade below the breakdown level of $0.10. This suggests a lack of urgency to buy at higher levels. Generally, sharp declines are followed by a consolidation as bulls and bears battle it out for supremacy.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The failure of the bulls to push the price above $0.10 may attract another round of selling by the bears who will attempt to resume the downtrend. If the price dips below $0.08, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to $0.06. If this support cracks, the decline could extend to the next support at $0.04.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $0.08, the pair may rise to $0.10 and remain stuck inside this range for a few days. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.10) to suggest that the downward momentum may be weakening.
The bulls defended the $10.37 support on May 17 but the shallow rebound suggested a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears resumed their selling on May 18 and pulled the price below $10.37. Polkadot (DOT) could now drop to $8.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers are expected to aggressively defend the zone between $8 and $7.30. If the price rebounds off this zone, the DOT/USDT pair could again attempt a relief rally. The recovery could pick up momentum on a break above the 20-day EMA ($12.53).
Alternatively, if bears sink the price below $7.30, the selling could accelerate and the pair may signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then plummet toward psychological support at $5.
The buyers could not push Avalanche (AVAX) above the immediate resistance at $38. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will now fancy their chances and attempt to pull the price below the critical support at $29. If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could retest the May 12 intraday low at $23.51. A break and close below this level could open the doors for a further decline to $20 and later to $18.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $29, the bulls will again try to push the pair above $38. If that happens, the relief rally could reach the 20-day EMA ($45). The bears may again pose a strong challenge at this level.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been consolidating inside the tight range between $0.000011 and $0.000014 for the past four days. Usually, such tight ranges resolve in a strong trending move.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price breaks below $0.000011, the bears will try to pull the SHIB/USDT pair to $0.000009. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.000007 and later to $0.000005.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.000014, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to the breakdown level at $0.000017.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.