BTC price up-down debate “mostly noise”
While many analysts anticipated BTC’s price to fall towards $30,000 next, mostly based on technicals, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments lambasted the downside bias, calling it “mostly noise.”
Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now, bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many, but it’s mostly noise. For Bitcoin, the network is what matters. Let’s dig deeper. pic.twitter.com/ipWumuRSya
– Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 17, 2022
Bitcoin vs. Apple stock price similarities
The director of Global Macro published a series of tweets late Thursday, focusing on Bitcoin’s network growth since its inception as a decentralized medium of exchange. In doing so, he compared the cryptocurrency’s network effect with that of Apple, a trillion-dollar tech giant.
“Apple’s price has grown 1457x since 1996, while its price-to-sales ratio has grown 30 times,” wrote Timmer, adding:
“If the growth in valuation is an exponent of the growth in sales (per Metcalfe’s Law), then price should increase as an exponent of both metrics.”
Apple price and valuation since 1996. Source: Fidelity
Applying the same metrics on the Bitcoin network returned impressive growth.
For instance, Fidelity found that Bitcoin’s price had surged 640,633x from inception until the end of 2021. While its price-to-network ratio, a supposed equivalent of the price-to-sales ratio, came out to be 52, up almost 867 times in the same period.
Bitcoin size and valuation. Source: Fidelity
“If we apply Metcalfe’s Law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751,111, noted Timmer, highlighting that it is “roughly in line with the 640,633x realized price gain.”
The stark similarities in the rise of Bitcoin and Apple networks – based on their price and price-to-sales/network ratios – prompted Timmer to hint at long-term growth in the Bitcoin market.
Additionally, the veteran analyst pitted demand curves of mobile phone subscriptions and internet adoption against Bitcoin to draw similar conclusions, suggesting that BTC’s price would rally above $100,000 in the future.
Bitcoin versus mobile phone and internet users’ demand model. Source: Fidelity
Long-term BTC setups back in focus
Like Timmer, other analysts also projected the ongoing decline as corrections that typically appear in a long-term bull market.
For instance, BTCfuel, an independent market analyst, shared a bullish outlook, citing a fractal from 2013.
Notably, Bitcoin in 2022 appeared to have been stuck below the same moving averages as it was in 2013. And since BTC broke above the said resistance areas eight years ago, its probability of repeating the same price action this year appeared higher, as per BTCfuel.
Bitcoin daily price chart 2013 vs. 2022. Source: TradingView
“Resumption soon,” the analyst wrote.
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