Bitcoin (BTC) could get sucked toward $50,000 like a magnet if it continues to follow gold, fresh analysis predicts.
In a Twitter update on Jan. 26, popular trader and market commentator TechDev presented a lofty new BTC price target tied to XAU/USD.
Gold, Bitcoin inverse dollar correlation “without question”
As the debate over how much Bitcoin will compete with gold remains, bullish-price takes are surfacing.
For TechDev, the outlook is more optimistic than for many – Bitcoin might even crack the $50,000 mark.
“What if Bitcoin continues to follow Gold / DXY ?” he queried.
An accompanying chart compared BTC/USD to gold versus the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The precious metal, TechDev hinted while continuing a previous narrative, may be frontrunning Bitcoin in terms of its recovery.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/DXY annotated chart. Source: TechDev/Twitter
As Cointelegraph reported, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin is now practically 100%.
“Outside of momentary reactions to geopolitical events… You think gold has been leading bitcoin for 4 years?” a previous Twitter thread asked.
TechDev added that the idea was “not a forecast. A legitimate question.”
“Would be interesting if it does play out. Both assets’ inverse correlation to the dollar is without question,” he concluded.
Should Bitcoin keep chasing gold in relative terms, the outcome could be a game-changer for bulls. XAU/USD is up 6.1% year-to-date – already far below BTC/USD by 39%, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
According to TechDev, Bitcoin now has a chance of passing not only $30,000, but even $50,000.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Analyst: Gold set for imminent huge trade boost
Even gold bugs, traditionally far from allies of Bitcoin, are eyeing a new halcyon era for the metal’s own fortunes.
Related: Bitcoin faces ‘considerable danger’ from Fed in 2023 – Lyn Alden
Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, this week brought geopolitics to the fore in his forecast, predicting a major uptick in gold-based trade in Russia, China and across Asia.
“Russia will not make formal announcements about gold standards, because there is no need. Nor will China: instead it might reveal an increase in gold reserves,” part of a Goldmoney article released on Jan. 26 read.
Macleod himself is no Bitcoin fan, with a dedicated article comparing it with gold as money from December flatly predicting that the latter would win out in a crisis.
“To affirm its status as money, bitcoin will have to obey the laws of time preference. In other words, its current relationship with interest rates must change, so that rising interest rates reflecting fiat currencies’ loss of their purchasing power should become reflected in rising values for bitcoin,” he wrote.
“We will not try to guess this future. But we can say confidently that if the debasement of currencies accelerates, gold’s relative value will increase accordingly while that of bitcoin might not.”
Other popular commentators have been more complimentary, with Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, frequently entertaining Bitcoin outpacing gold in the long term.
XAU/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
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