Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.
Bitcoin clings to realized price
At around $23,400, realized price – the average price at which each BTC last moved – is acting as the first solid support so far on lower timeframes.
Bitcoin realized price vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Glassnode
Previous levels, including those highlighted as potential bottoms, have failed to hold, and sentiment continues to favor further sell-side pressure thanks to the Celsius aftermath, inflation and forthcoming actions by the United States Federal Reserve.
Where BTC/USD could put in a final macro floor, meanwhile, is now a topic of heated debate.
The first port of call for a significant drawdown is the 200-week simple moving average (200 SMA), traders and analysts agree.
At $22,370 as of June 13, the 200 SMA has acted as key support throughout Bitcoin’s lifetime, with only brief wicks below it marking generational spot price bottoms.
The 200 SMA has never broken its own uptrend, and the hope is that reaching it will allow bulls a period of respite.
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200 SMA. Source: TradingView
“People are looking to buy there, it’s going to bounce more than likely at that area,” Josh Rager argued in a dedicated video update on the day.
While describing the bounce at the 200 SMA as a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” thanks to the scope of interest in it, he warned that there was a guarantee that BTC/USD would not continue south this time around.
This is thanks to historical precedent, which shows Bitcoin bottoming out up to 84% below its latest all-time high. At $69,000, such a bottom would thus lie at just $11,000.
“That would be detrimental; I don’t think the price drops that low, I mean you’re basically looking at a full retrace of the entire bull market and we have never seen that,” Rager continued.
Instead, areas of interest are the 2017 all-time high around $20,000, as well as the area immediately below, extending to $17,000. $14,000, equating to an 80% retracement from the current all-time highs, is also worth paying attention to, he added.
As Cointelegraph reported, several of those levels have already been underscored by others as potential bottoms, among them by trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
In a series of tweets on June 13, the significance of the 200 SMA again came into play.
Historically, #BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-week MA
A -14% wick this time around would translate to a ~$19000 $BTC
– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2022
Fed becomes bulls’ last chance saloon
At the time of writing, meanwhile, BTC/USD had managed to avoid a fresh dive in line with U.S. equities markets.
The S&P 500, by contrast, lost down 3% within the first hour of trading, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 3.6%.
To halt crypto’s decline, some claim, only the Fed can step in, reversing monetary tightening as rising interest rates throttle growth.
“Realize how little this crypto dump has to do with Celsius and the stETH drama and all to do with the widespread panic in risk assets (equities and crypto alike) and broken charts,” economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger told Twitter followers on the day, brushing aside the Celsius news.
A further post read:
“This is just my opinion, I’m often wrong. My guesstimate is Celsius added 1.2x to the fuel. Everybody making it about Celsius. Watch the media tomorrow. But without Friday’s CPI numbers and equities collapsing this would not have happened.”
Nonetheless, illusions were few and far between for longtime Bitcoin market participants. Should BTC/USD drop below $20,000, it would be the first time ever that a previous halving cycle’s all-time high would be crossed.
– Ansel Lindner (@AnselLindner) June 13, 2022
“Without a Fed pivot, I expect this will be the first cycle Bitcoin drops below the prior cycles all time high,” Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, concluded.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.